Between Risk and Hope: Demographic Change and (Return)Migration in Latvia Amid Russia’s War in Ukraine

The project proposal aligns with the call’s goal of researching demography, migration, and return migration within the context of current geopolitical, socio-economic, and regional changes. It considers Russia’s war in Ukraine as a structural shock that alters how people in Latvia and its diaspora make decisions about family formation, emigration, return, and integration. Drawing on theories of risk society, ontological security, and hope/future imaginaries, it examines how perceived insecurity and future expectations influence demographic behaviour. The project consists of five substantive work packages: 1) civic “X-Day” imaginaries and their demographic implications; 2) fertility and family strategies amidst insecurity; 3) return migration potential in the Latvian UK diaspora; 4) media discourse on migration; 5) integration experiences of post-2022 Ukrainian refugees, along with recent Belarusian and Russian migrants. Using mixed methods, including a nationally representative survey, survey and conjoint experiments, participant observation, and in-depth interviews, the project will produce reusable datasets, academic publications, policy briefs, regional outreach events, and a book. By working with Latvia’s ministries responsible for demography, welfare, defence, diaspora, and integration, it will provide evidence-based recommendations to improve population resilience, return migration strategies, and demographic policy planning amid long-term geopolitical pressures.