Are we ready for the next pandemic? Public preferences and trade-offs between vaccine characteristics and societal restrictions across 21 countries

Marcello Antonini (Corresponding Author), Mesfin G. Genie, Katie Attwell, Arthur E. Attema, Jeremy K. Ward, Alessia Melegaro, Aleksandra Torbica, Brian Kelly, Chiara Berardi, Ana Rita Sequeira, Neil McGregor, Adrian Kellner, Shuli Brammli-Greenberg, Madeleine Hinwood, Liubovė Murauskienė, Daiga Behmane, Zsolt J. Balogh, Terje P. Hagen, Francesco Paolucci

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    Abstract

    In vaccination decisions, individuals must weigh the benefits against the risks of remaining unvaccinated and potentially facing social restrictions. Previous studies have focused on individual preferences for vaccine characteristics and societal restrictions separately. This study aims to quantify public preferences and the potential trade-offs between vaccine characteristics and societal restrictions, including lockdowns and vaccine mandates, in the context of a future pandemic. We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) involving 47,114 respondents from 21 countries between July 2022 and June 2023 through an online panel. Participants were presented with choices between two hypothetical vaccination programs and an option to opt-out. A latent class logit model was used to estimate trade-offs among attributes. Despite some level of preference heterogeneity across countries and respondents’ profiles, we consistently identified three classes of respondents: vaccine refusers, vaccine-hesitant, and pro-vaccine individuals. Vaccine attributes were generally deemed more important than societal restriction attributes. We detected strong preferences for the highest levels of vaccine effectiveness and for domestically produced vaccines across most countries. Being fully vaccinated against COVID-19 was the strongest predictor of pro-vaccine class preferences. Women and younger people were more likely to be vaccine refusers compared to men and older individuals. In some countries, vaccine hesitancy and refusal were linked to lower socioeconomic status, whereas in others, individuals with higher education and higher income were more likely to exhibit hesitancy. Our findings emphasize the need for tailored vaccination programs that consider local contexts and demographics. Building trust in national regulatory authorities and international organizations through targeted communication, along with investing in domestic production facilities, can improve vaccine uptake and enhance public health responses in the future.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article number117687
    JournalSocial Science and Medicine
    Volume366
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jan 2025

    Keywords*

    • DCE
    • Non-pharmaceutical interventions
    • Pandemic
    • Vaccine mandate
    • Vaccine nationalism

    Field of Science*

    • 3.3 Health sciences

    Publication Type*

    • 1.1. Scientific article indexed in Web of Science and/or Scopus database

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