Demographic challenges and demand for long-term care in Riga municipality

Objective of the study is to make a forecast of the demand for long term care in institution (further - LTC) based on the analysis of demographic trends and LTC demand and supply dynamics in Riga. Multivariate regression analysis is used to determine the factors influencing the dynamics of the demand for long-term care. Linear relationship of the data was estimated using Q-Q plots. Regression model was selected based on the proper criterion and the coefficient of determination. A similar calculation protocol has been used to perform regression analysis for all dependent variables. Number of applications for the LTC on an annual basis can be most accurately predicted by knowing the dynamics of Riga's population over the age of 60. The number of applications for LTC in thirteen years has tripled from 572 to 1664. Of all applications, only about 10% are rejected, which is a relatively small number of applicants. Average age of applicants for LTC is 80. If the current demand for long-term care remains, the number of applications could reach 2365 by 2029. Most people apply for a long-term care as they cannot take care of themselves exactly because of their age, not their disability or other social circumstances. People do not apply for a LTC immediately after receiving an old-age pension - on average, it takes 10-15 years from the day of retirement for a person to apply for LTC. LTC costs are rising due to changes in consumer prices, but average customer revenues are not rising as fast, resulting in a proportional increase in the share of municipal co-financing. The number of applications for LTC is expected to increase by an average of 5% per year, and accordingly the number of LTC 24728982 required will need to be increased by at least 21% by 2025.