Does the Emerging Middle Class Support Democracy? A Comparative Analysis of China, Countries with Authoritarian Political Regimes, and Recent Post-Socialist Democracies

Does the emerging middle class support democracy? This study provides a comparative analysis of political attitudes, actions, and preferences of the middle class in China, other countries characterized by authoritarian political regimes/tendencies (Russia, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Vietnam, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan), and post-socialist countries that have recently established democratic regimes (Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Estonia, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova). Conceptually, the study draws on the insights from the modernization and critical junctures theories of economic growth and political development, as well as the neo-Weberian approach to social-economic development. The empirical analysis, based on data from the World Values Survey, shows a positive association between the middle class status and preference for democratic governance in China; this link tends to be stronger than in other countries with authoritarian tendencies, but weaker than in the post-socialist democracies, especially those that are members of the EU. Compared to other country groups, the middle class in China are most likely to support strong leaders and least likely to take part in demonstrations and strikes. Consistently with the neo-Weberian approach, the preferences towards democracy in different countries can be explained by country-wide cultural attitudes.