LATVIA–CHINA OUTLOOK: CHINESE DREAMS AND LATVIAN REALITIES

Up until COVID-19, Latvia’s interest in developing an economic partnership with China was described as “consistently high”.1 The aftermath of global turbulence caused by the pandemic, China’s strategic comprehensive partnership with Russia, and its non-aligned stance on Ukraine have dampened Latvia’s initial optimism about the extent of engagement with China. Since 2004, Latvia–China bilateral engagement has expanded in the fields of trade, education, and culture, even as structural asymmetries have persisted and political dialogue has increasingly reflected tensions between liberal democratic and state-capitalist systems. Latvia’s EU and NATO integration, alongside China’s partnership with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, have defined this new stage of
mutual caution. Latvia has repeatedly urged Beijing to condemn and cease its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine,2 but China continues to shield Moscow under the banner of “non-intervention in internal affairs”. As Latvia prepares for its 2026–2027 term on the UN Security Council (UNSC), the fundamental conflict between Latvia’s and China’s visions is evident: while Latvia’s UNSC priorities centre on defending international law as enshrined in the UN Charter (UNC), achieving a just peace in Ukraine, and addressing security threats (hybrid, cyber AI-related, and disinformation),3 China’s efforts aim to embed state-capitalist norms and authoritarian governance concepts that directly challenge the liberal rules-based international system that has enabled Latvia’s democratic development. This clash extends to competing definitions of multilateralism
itself. Latvia defends Charter-based multilateralism, whereas the CCP’s “vertical multilateralism”4 seeks to institutionalise Xi Jinping’s “Community of Shared Future for Mankind” (CSF) (人类命运共同体) in UN institutions, a vision fundamentally incompatible with the principles Latvia aims to uphold. This overview summarises the historical shifts, current economic and political dynamics, and future prospects of Latvia-China relations as they stand in 2025 – balancing between pragmatic cooperation and security-based restraint.