Predicting schoolyard physical activity during recess among adolescents: an integrated motivational model across Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania

This two-wave prospective study tested an integrated theoretical model combining Self-determination Theory and Theory of Planned Behaviour to identify motivational and social-cognitive predictors of adolescents’ physical activity (PA) in schoolyard during recess in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. A total of 687 students aged 13–20 years participated in an online survey, including samples from Estonia (n = 193), Latvia (n = 209), and Lithuania (n = 285). In the first wave, students reported their autonomous and controlled motivation, attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control (PBC), intentions, and past behaviour concerning PA in the schoolyard. Four weeks later, students again self-reported their engagement in schoolyard PA. Multi-group structural equation modelling revealed that autonomous motivation consistently predicted stronger intention across countries via attitude and PBC. Conversely, controlled motivation was negatively related to intention through attitude and PBC, particularly among Latvian adolescents, suggesting heightened sensitivity to external pressures in this group. Importantly, the intention-behaviour relationship was non-significant after controlling for past behaviour, emphasising habitual factors in predicting schoolyard PA. Comparisons across countries revealed limited variations in model pathways, highlighting generalizability yet also pinpointing specific national differences, particularly regarding the role of controlled motivation in Latvia. Robustness checks showed that findings remained stable when accounting for gender and perceived schoolyard characteristics, with visual appeal positively linked to PA in Lithuania. Findings underscore the importance of fostering need-supportive environments during recess and reducing controlling influences. Schools are encouraged to implement context-specific interventions considering students’ motivational dynamics and habitual behaviours to enhance PA during recess.