Prognostic factors of self-rated health deterioration during Covid-19 in the Baltic States

Background
In order to implement the necessary measures to prevent the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemics, long-term assessment of health status is needed. The objective of the study - to determine the prognostic factors of self-rated health deterioration during the first wave of Covid-19 pandemics.

Methods
The study was based on a sample of individuals from wave 7, wave 8 and Covid-19 add-on of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) in the period from 2017 till 2020. The sample size was 4429 respondents - Latvia: 649, Lithuania: 1083, Estonia: 2697. Descriptive statistics as well as univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression was performed, including health determinants, demographics and factors associated with Covid-19.

Results
Based on univariate binary logistic regression analysis, the main predictors for deterioration of self-rated health (unadjusted OR; 95%CI) were: age 80+ years (reference group 50-59 years) for Estonia (3.03; 2.93-3.14), diagnosed with major condition since Covid-19 for Latvia (15.45; 15.14-15.77) and Estonia (6.75; 6.57-6.94), fair or poor health since Covid-19 for Lithuania (4.92; 4.86-4.99), loneliness since Covid-19 for Lithuania (5.03; 4.94-5.12), limited in activities due to health condition for Latvia (4.53; 4.42-4.64), depression since Covid-19 for Lithuania (3.78-3.71-3.85), limited in activities due to age for Latvia (3.01; 2.95-3.08), nervousness since Covid-19 for Lithuania (2.08; 2.04-2.12). All predictors were statistically significant for all three Baltic countries.

Conclusions
The results in all three Baltic States indicated a similar trend that, taking into account the influence of other factors, the most important predictive factors were related to health and demographic indicators. Only one factor related to the first wave of Covid-19 (in Latvia - nervousness since Covid-19, in Lithuania and Estonia - less or no direct contact with children since Covid-19) predicts deterioration in health.