The burden of infection associated diseases on society and the economy

COVID-19 pandemic requires reassessment of major quantitative measures for severe epidemies. Infectious diseases have been major challenging factor on supply side starting in early capitalistic economy, when the specialisation of workforce increased (Sombart). Economic crisis caused by a pandemic is a complex demand and supply crisis, in case of COVID-19 having unique traits. Pandemic effects are especially long-lasting: burden vs. cost. Supply side crisis means also damage happening now but having very protracted negative impact, only in part quantifiable. Unique are high prevention costs with outright negative impact on future income via education and training channel. COST Action CA18218 European Burden of Disease Network (BODN) has developed a protocol on burden assessment arising from CIOVID. We are assessing this protocol against the factors during the second wave proposing adjustment factors. Expert analysis of protocol. Factor prioritisation for gap explanation. Econometric analysis and forecasting. GAP analysis, over- and under-trend technical analysis. DALY (disease adjustment life years) have substantial limitation in COVID assessment due to number of post-infectious disability cases, which is however increasing: well-known ailments as ITP and ME/CFS require 6-month lag. Decomposition of output gap and comparative analysis allow addressing income loss due to education and qualification, loss of intergenerational interaction, prevention costs. Comparison with broad crisis theory allows to access comparatively the 6% future income loss which is usually attributed to working life deficit of generation entering labour market during a major crisis. Hysteresis arising from pandemic is heavily based on education and training deficits additionally. Non biometrical components of disease burden are not accessible by DALYs protocols. Decomposition of output gap allows closer assessment of burden factors.