The Referendum as an Instrument of Popular Will or a Threat to the Fundamental Values of Democracy in the 21st Century: a Study of European Union Countries (2016–2023)

In conditions of political instability, polarization, and challenges to democratic governance, a significant trend is the increasing desire among societal groups to influence governance directly. In this context, referendums are often proposed as a truly democratic decision-making instrument. This idea has gained traction, particularly in populist rhetoric, which advocates for returning decision-making power to the “hands of the people,” echoing a form of direct democracy. Yet, questions arise as to whether the referendum is as genuine a form of democratic expression as it seems or whether it might serve as a tool for destabilizing and weakening democracy. This study examines the evolving role of referendums in European Union countries from 2016 to 2023, assessing whether they function as authentic instruments of popular will or pose risks to democracy’s foundational values. Through analyzing trends in referendum usage, legal frameworks, and instances of manipulation, the study explores the impact of referendums on democratic stability, with a focus on potential political elite instrumentalization. Employing a document analysis methodology, the study examines three types of referendum-related documents: proposals, processes, and outcomes. The initial analysis covers referendums held in EU Member States between 2016 and 2023, identifying types, themes, voter turnout, and outcomes. Additionally, the study reviews referendum legislation in EU countries that conducted referendums during this period. Building on these findings, three referendums are examined in depth: the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership, the 2017 Catalan independence referendum, and the 2023 Polish referendum on issues of significant national importance. The analysis confirms the hypothesis that the referendum’s effectiveness as a democratic tool is declining, increasingly positioning it as a vehicle for manipulation by political elites. Forms of manipulation identified include selective law interpretation aligned with elite interests, framing referendum questions to lead voters toward specific answers, strategically timing referendums to benefit elite electoral agendas, using populist appeals for support, and distorting information to sway both national and international opinion.